Thursday, June 14, 2007

Our collapsing value....the dollar

“Mom, it’s not fair”. No, it is not Paris Hilton crying, but our own Congress and the sycophants at the White House. We blame Iran for our fiasco in Iraq, China for our trade deficits, Chavez for the leftist trend in Latin America, Russia for reviving the Cold War, France for the French fries, etc.. We always have someone to blame, but ourselves.
And we dare to be arrogant, and lecture the world via a series of ignorant missionaries. Every time they (Cheney, Rice, Bolton, Negroponte) talk, we lose more friends and create more enemies.
Meanwhile, the value of our dollar has been collapsing in the last four years, about 35% versus the Euro, the Japanese yen, the Canadian loonie, and most Arab currencies. We will ignore other collapsing values with the rest of the world: ethics, moral, credibility, trust,fair play, etc.
According to Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of our Federal Reserve Board, there is little reason to fear a wholesale pullout by China out of U.S. government bonds.
“The reason such a withdrawal is unlikely is that China will not have anyone to whom to sell the securities” dixit Mr. Greenspan..
Mr. Greenspan reinforced the nervousness, saying that a global liquidity boom which he traced back to the end of the Cold War would not go on forever. “Enjoy it while it lasts,” he told an European audience, last week.
What is revealing here is the fact that no one will be interested in buying American debts owned by China. What’s the meaning of this? No international fund managers trust our Treasury Notes? Are they worthless?
So, why China should re-evaluate the yuan? They are not that crazy for decreasing the value of their own credit with United States. We might have stupid politicians to believe Chinese are stupid, but this is not the way the world works anymore. The only way for China to protect the value of their US credit, will be to convert the US Treasury Notes and Bonds into assets, in other words, by buying American stuff. (Stuff happens, as said by a great diplomat and clairvoyant ex Secretary of Defense).
For those who know there is a Real World, outside our borders, we have noticed that China is diversifying its holdings, buying less and less American debts, while acquiring strategic assets in other countries. China has another major advantage: there will be no astronomical bill to pay because of Iraq-Afghanistan, and our naive policy with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
What’s the position of China? They can not get rid of their US credit. There is no buyer. They could make a garage sale, but their net end-result will be drastically affected, and the US dollar will reach an alarming low figure.
Being host of 2008 Olympics, China does not want to disturb the world currencies. Also, before the Presidential election, China does not want to become the target of irresponsible politicians. So, we can expect serious turbulence in our interest rate, in less than two years.
It is amazing, and discouraging, to hear remarks by certain Senators and Presidential candidates. We did invade Iraq, against the advice of Canada and Old Europe. We have brought chaos in that country, and now we are blaming the Iraq Government for not fixing the problems we have ourselves created. Then, we see (and unfortunately, hear) Senators, Presidential candidates and Members of Congress coming with their own recipe for Iraq, without having a clue about their culture, and history. Four years ago, they even did not know where Iraq was on the map. Now, they know how to solve their future. The White House and Pentagon have already done enough damage. It seems that certain politicians will never learn.
Now, our great clairvoyant politicians would like China to solve our trade deficits.
"We hope the U.S. Senate and Congress can view from a strategic perspective the importance of the healthy development of China-U.S. economic relations...and not politicize economic and trade issues, and not resolve issues by exerting pressure," Qin Gang, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, have recently told reporters.
Qin also said such issues should be resolved "through dialogue and equal consultation.".
Unfortunately, a dialogue for the White House is their way, or no way. We have seen the results in the last four years. The Real World is not impressed anymore by the United States. As a matter of fact, no one is listening. It seems that certain Senators, Congress Members and Presidential candidates did not learn anything. Hope their respective constituents will learn to be smarter, and not re-elect them, next time.
It is time, and more than time, that we, the people, take our own responsibility, and protect our children. It is more than time to fire politicians who rule for the few, not the many.
The enemy is not outside, he is in the mirror. We have gained friends in the past, we have lost most of them, now. Friends might come and go, but enemies, stay and accumulate. Heck of a job, Bush family, and your sycophants.
The Facilitator.